18.10.2006 19:32 - category: Real Estate: Real Estate Industry
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The housing market will get worse before it gets better - that's the finding of an analysis by Moody's Economy.com.
In the survey of 379 metro areas, the study's authors project that nearly 20 areas eventually could experience a "crash," or a decline of more than 10 percent from peak to trough. The most hard-hit areas will be in California, the Southwest coast of Florida, and in Arizona and Nevada.
Nationwide, the study forecasts a 3.6 percent decline in the sales price of existing homes.
The table below shows only those markets among the 100 largest by population that are forecast to have declines. In an analysis that considered mortgage rates, the local job market and other factors, the study makes projections on when those markets would peak, when they would hit their worst point, and what the total decline would be.
| Moody's Home Price Forecast | ||||
| Area | State | Peak to bottom home price decline | Peak | Bottom |
| Cape Coral | FL | -18.6 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2007 |
| Reno | NV | -17.2 | Q4 2005 | Q4 2008 |
| Merced | CA | -16.1 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2009 |
| Stockton | CA | -15.7 | Q4 2005 | Q4 2008 |
| Sarasota | FL | -14.0 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2007 |
| Naples | FL | -13.8 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2007 |
| Tucson | AZ | -13.4 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Las Vegas | NV | -12.9 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2009 |
| Chico | CA | -12.6 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Fresno | CA | -12.5 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2009 |
| Atlantic City | NJ | -12.2 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Vallejo | CA | -12.1 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2009 |
| Washington | DC | -12.0 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Redding | CA | -11.8 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Detroit | MI | -11.7 | Q3 2005 | Q4 2006 |
| Riverside | CA | -11.4 | Q1 2006 | Q4 2008 |
| Bloomington | IL | -11.1 | Q3 2005 | Q4 2006 |
| Bakersfield | CA | -11.1 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2009 |
| Greeley | CO | -10.7 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Salinas | CA | -10.3 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Santa Ana | CA | -10.0 | Q1 2006 | Q4 2008 |
| Sacramento | CA | -9.9 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Carson City | NV | -9.8 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2009 |
| Phoenix | AZ | -9.3 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Punta Gorda | FL | -8.9 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2007 |
| San Diego | CA | -8.5 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Warren | MI | -8.4 | Q3 2005 | Q4 2006 |
| Allentown | PA | -8.2 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Nassau | NY | -8.1 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Fort Walton Beach | FL | -7.9 | Q2 2005 | Q3 2006 |
| Santa Rosa | CA | -7.9 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Ocean City | NJ | -7.6 | Q1 2007 | Q2 2010 |
| Visalia | CA | -7.3 | Q4 2005 | Q4 2008 |
| Rockford | IL | -7.3 | Q1 2006 | Q1 2009 |
| Santa Barbara | CA | -7.2 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Worcester | MA | -7.0 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2007 |
| New Orleans | LA | -6.7 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2007 |
| Saginaw | MI | -6.5 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2009 |
| Oakland | CA | -6.4 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Fort Collins | CO | -6.1 | Q3 2005 | Q2 2007 |
| Portland | ME | -5.9 | Q1 2006 | Q1 2007 |
| Fort Lauderdale | FL | -5.9 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2007 |
| West Palm Beach | FL | -5.7 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2006 |
| Miami | FL | -5.5 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Edison | NJ | -5.2 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Los Angeles | CA | -4.8 | Q2 2006 | Q4 2008 |
| Denver | CO | -4.6 | Q2 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Napa | CA | -3.8 | Q1 2006 | Q3 2006 |
| Providence | RI | -3.6 | Q3 2005 | Q2 2007 |
| New York | NY | -3.5 | Q2 2006 | Q4 2008 |
| Champaign | IL | -3.5 | Q4 2005 | Q1 2009 |
| Essex County | MA | -3.1 | Q3 2005 | Q3 2006 |
| Bethesda | MD | -3.0 | Q4 2005 | Q2 2008 |
| Boulder | CO | -2.8 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2006 |
| Yuba City | CA | -2.6 | Q4 2005 | Q3 2006 |
| Salt Lake City | UT | -2.3 | Q1 2006 | Q3 2006 |
| Boston | MA | -2.2 | Q2 2006 | Q3 2006 |
| Pueblo | CO | -2.1 | Q1 2006 | Q3 2006 |
| Prescott | AZ | -2.0 | Q1 2006 | Q2 2008 |
| Madera | CA | -1.8 | Q1 2007 | Q2 2009 |
| Colorado Springs | CO | -1.6 | Q2 2006 | Q3 2006 |
| Grand Junction | CO | -1.3 | Q2 2006 | Q3 2006 |
| Portland | OR | -0.8 | Q3 2007 | Q2 2009 |
| Lewiston | ID | -0.8 | Q1 2007 | Q2 2008 |
| St. George | UT | -0.5 | Q3 2007 | Q2 2008 |
| Honolulu | HI | -0.3 | Q2 2007 | Q4 2008 |
| Milwaukee | WI | -0.3 | Q2 2007 | Q3 2008 |
| Hagerstown | MD | -0.2 | Q3 2007 | Q2 2008 |
| Medford | OR | -0.2 | Q3 2007 | Q2 2008 |
| San Jose | CA | -0.2 | Q1 2007 | Q2 2007 |
